BayesianBahn

Early release: predictions are experimental — always cross-check

times and connections with DB's official apps.

BayesianBahn predicts when you will actually arrive — as a full

probability distribution, not a single number.

Enter where you start, where you want to go and when (also future trips):

the app searches direct trains and journeys with one change — routes

needing two or more changes are not covered yet, so it will sometimes

find fewer connections than DB's own apps. For each option it shows:

* the median predicted arrival time at your destination,

* an 80% credible interval,

* the full delay distribution as a chart,

* the probability of catching each connecting train,

* a Deutschland-Ticket filter that keeps you on regional trains.

Transfers are propagated with Bayes' theorem: you board the first

connecting train that has not left yet — so a delayed earlier train

counts as catchable, and a missed connection honestly shifts the whole

distribution. Live station boards and per-train predictions (including

cancellation rates) are also available.

Predictions are empirical: they come from months of real historical runs

of that exact train at that station (collected from Deutsche Bahn's